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Short version: an SIR lands about once every 80 packs (~1 per 2.2 boxes), and the single Mega Hyper Rare - Mega Rayquaza ex - sits around 1 in 1,000-1,400 packs. If you want a specific SIR, expect roughly 1 in 480-660 packs; buying singles beats cracking sealed product for any one card.

Odds by rarity

Community-measured rates (hundreds of packs opened) cross-checked against comparable Mega Evolution sets - early numbers, treat the two rarest rows as directional.

RarityPer packPer 36-pack boxOne specific card
ex / Double Rare (10 cards)1 in ~4.8-5~7-8~1 in 48
Illustration Rare (14 cards)1 in ~9~3.8~1 in 127
Ultra Rare (17 cards)1 in ~12~3~1 in 205
Special Illustration Rare (6 cards)1 in ~80~0.5~1 in 480-660
Mega Hyper Rare (1 card)1 in ~1,000-1,400~1 in 28-39 boxesonly Mega Rayquaza ex
Pack anatomy: each pack holds commons, uncommons, a reverse slot and one rare-or-better slot - about 4 in 10 packs yield an ex or better, the rest top out at a regular Rare.

What the chase cards cost in packs

Chase cardRarity~Pull odds
Mega Rayquaza ex (MHR)Mega Hyper Rare~1 in 1,000-1,400 packs
Mega Rayquaza ex (SIR)Special Illustration Rare~1 in 660 packs
Raikou ex / Zinnia's Trust / Mega Golurk ex / Mega Golisopod exSIR~1 in 660 packs each
Eevee, GroudonIllustration Rare~1 in 182 packs each
Legendary Stadium quirk: a pack containing a Legendary Stadium holds both halves of the pair - those Stadium slots don't change the rare-slot odds above.

Is it worth ripping?

Honest math: sealed boxes are for the fun of opening, not for value hunting.

One specific card

Buy the single. A named SIR costs ~660 packs on average - far above its market price.

A box for fun

Expect ~7-8 ex cards, ~4 Illustration Rares, ~3 Ultra Rares, and a coin flip on one SIR per 36-pack box.

The MHR dream

Rayquaza MHR is roughly a 1-in-30-boxes pull - lottery territory, not a plan.

FAQ

Is Delta Herrschaft the same set as Delta Reign?

Yes - Herrschaft is the German name, Reign the English one; identical cards and pull rates.

Are these official odds?

No - Pokemon doesn't publish pack odds. These come from community pack openings and matched-layout sets, so the rarest rows will sharpen as more data lands.

Where can I see the full card list?

See our Delta Herrschaft set guide for the card list, key dates and notable pulls.